Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 17.363608 20.989225 25.009785 29.774757 35.242543 41.295063 48.475045
2025-06-01 11.768533 16.380499 22.061953 29.467550 38.748319 49.872696 64.081534
2025-06-08 8.353241 13.073986 19.406285 28.292438 40.184624 55.278825 75.576973
2025-06-15 6.756119 11.658581 18.706166 29.186771 43.933053 63.462426 90.725144
2025-06-22 5.157191 9.828311 17.022670 28.338404 45.028421 68.014519 101.206282
2025-06-29 4.371850 9.067165 16.727456 29.337812 48.647471 76.065907 116.699344
2025-07-06 3.260879 7.485753 14.861392 27.653743 48.082330 78.081671 123.811431
2025-07-13 2.828407 7.027972 14.748816 28.671410 51.598188 86.090777 139.733962
2025-07-20 2.440780 6.563064 14.535926 29.460073 54.758774 93.687768 155.359765
2025-07-27 2.157910 6.247363 14.534184 30.577441 58.482443 102.280486 172.790799
2025-08-03 1.879304 5.871644 14.353317 31.333788 61.624727 110.090222 189.331950
2025-08-10 1.532112 5.239344 13.560293 30.868013 62.631142 114.548152 200.891828
2025-08-17 1.171595 4.491811 12.468076 29.842598 62.820118 118.086351 211.834919
2025-08-24 0.928001 3.978078 11.794433 29.565423 64.345816 123.957671 226.871932
2025-08-31 0.687556 3.364727 10.755939 28.388613 64.085834 126.784008 237.098584
2025-09-07 0.590315 3.179235 10.711506 29.285450 67.759392 136.449625 258.837077
2025-09-14 0.443888 2.739210 9.919152 28.434778 67.975600 140.109149 270.762584
2025-09-21 0.385351 2.616574 9.950195 29.436904 71.896592 150.452405 294.262061
2025-09-28 0.266517 2.148961 8.892754 27.748244 70.239074 150.706160 300.617113
2025-10-05 0.232130 2.065962 8.957904 28.768692 74.224708 161.377616 325.248183
2025-10-12 0.198066 1.961714 8.933665 29.559497 77.771306 171.381412 349.049014
2025-10-19 0.174101 1.900036 9.035161 30.679879 82.089266 182.993102 376.039700
2025-10-26 0.148033 1.804361 9.000620 31.438255 85.662967 193.338830 401.112656